The month of February has continued on the path of recovery, and the labor reform seems to be noticeable with a more than evident improvement in the quality of new contracts in the Marina Alta, according to the data analyzed by CREAMA's Marina Alta Observatory . Social Security increased by 793 affiliates in February. This is a normal behavior of employment for a month of February, but what has been exceptional is the notable improvement in indefinite hiring that has been registered, almost 37% of new hires during February were indefinite, which means tripling the historical average of this type of contract. Therefore, for the second consecutive month, since the labor reform came into force, the signing of permanent contracts increased.
The number of Social Security affiliates in February increased by 793 people, reaching 55.716 affiliates, which translates into an increase of 1,44%. This represents a relatively typical behavior in what had been the Februarys of years prior to the crisis, with the exception of February 2021, a year highly affected by the pandemic, but if we compare this increase in affiliates during this month with the Februarys prior to the pandemic, we find that we have to go back to February 2016 to see a February worse than this year.
In this month, however, an increase in enrollment in year-on-year terms of 8,78% is reflected, +4.496 people, therefore, there has been significant growth in employment.
With this annual growth of close to 9%, what we observe is that we have seen an acceleration in the year-on-year growth of employment for several consecutive months, which is very good news, but this trend may reverse and a reduction in the increase in employment will be observed. the number of affiliates with respect to the previous year, since we are still comparing the number of affiliates of February 2022 with respect to February '21, compared to a time when the crisis was still deeply affecting the economy and therefore the labor market. Throughout 2021, a progressive recovery has been seen in many of the employment sectors, therefore, when year-on-year comparisons are made, as 2022 deepens, a moderation in the positive number of affiliates can be expected.
By activity schemes, a generalized increase in employment stands out, with the exception of the Special Scheme for the Sea, which reduced its number of affiliations compared to January by 7,68% (a total of 1.118 affiliates, -93). In percentage terms, the Special Agrarian Regime is the one that has experienced the greatest increase, with 3,01%, followed by the General Regime, with 2,23%. In year-on-year terms (compared with February 2021), the Special Agrarian Regime is the one that has had the greatest drop, with -12,73% (-55 affiliates) and, on the contrary, the General Regime has grown by 12,61 % (+4.019 affiliates).
As for the number of job seekers, there was a decrease of 180 people compared to January. This fall in unemployment by 1,66% is common in the months of February of the years preceding the start of the pandemic, but what is positively remarkable is that this decrease places the number of jobseekers at 10.687 people, the highest figure low in a month of February of the historical series and even more so with a very notable decrease in the last year, it falls by 27,90% compared to February 2021 (-4.135 people).
The composition of job seekers by sex is represented as has been the case in recent months, where the weight of unemployed men is 41,17% (4.400), compared to 58,83% of women (6.287). The decrease in job seekers in the last month was 3,19% for men (-145 men), while for women it fell by just 0,55% (-35 women). Likewise, if we compare with February 2021, this year-on-year decrease has been more pronounced in the case of men (-32,57% in men compared to -24,23% in women).
If we analyze unemployment by productive sectors, the Industry sector decreases its number of job seekers by 4,03% (476 job seekers, -20 people). In relative terms, it is followed by Construction and Services with a decrease of 3,10% and 1,38% respectively (1.124 and 8.428 unemployed people). The Agriculture sector is the only one where the number of job seekers increases (+2,82%, 219 people).
If we compare the figures for this month of February with February 2021, the year-on-year variations are more favorable, since these 4.135 fewer job seekers translate into the largest drop in unemployed in a year of the historical series (-27,90%) . Thus, the activity sectors with the greatest percentage drop in unemployed people in the last year are Construction (-27,76% and 432 fewer people) and Services (-27,38% and 3.177 fewer people).
If we detail the analysis by section of economic activity and focus on those activities with greater weight in the region, we observe that Hospitality has decreased by 144 people (-5,19%), Construction has decreased its number of unemployed people by 36 people (-3,10%) and Commerce, however, has increased by 25 people (+1,39%). These variations become more dynamic if we compare them with the month of February of last year. Hospitality industry decreased its job seekers by 39,86%, Commerce -24,39% and Construction -27,76%.
Through the calculation of the unemployment rate, in the Marina Alta, it is observed that it practically remains the same, it decreases by less than half a point with respect to January, reaching an estimated unemployment rate of 16,09%.
As a global analysis of the crisis, we can highlight if we compare ourselves with February 2020, the last month before the start of the crisis and just two years later, we have an increase in membership of 2.005 members, we have more employment than we had in 2020, with the nuance of the people still covered by ERTE. Regarding unemployment, if we compare ourselves with February '20 there are 301 less unemployed.
In terms of hiring, we find that in the month of February it has grown by 4,39% compared to January. 3.183 contracts have been signed, of which 63,31% are temporary and 36,69% indefinite, a figure that continues to increase compared to the previous month in the case of indefinite contracts (+285) and falls in terms of contracting temporary (-151) This figure is high for a month of February. As expected, it exceeds that of last year by 81,78% (+1.432), but what is relevant is to highlight the new hiring record in a month of February, and we stress that the new permanent contracts during this month exceed the thousand. The signing of 1.168 indefinite contracts this month represents the highest number reached in a month of February in the historical series. Thus, for the second consecutive month since the labor reform came into force, the number of permanent contracts increased. The temporary hiring modality is expected to disappear on April 1 since the labor reform eliminates it to try to tackle the excess of temporary employment in the labor market. Thus, although the new hiring measures have not come into force at present -- they will do so in April -- companies would be anticipating their effects.
Differences can be seen in the variation of hiring by sex with respect to the previous month, thus the hiring of women has increased by 5,40% compared to January and by 3,49% for men. The number of contracts signed during the month of January has been in favor of men in 52,18% and 47,82% for women. As well as highlighting that compared to February '21, the growth in hiring has been more intense in the case of women (+93,64% for women and +72,12% for men).
We will have to wait until next March to see how the labor market evolves, where little by little this favorable evolution of employment will be slowed down, fundamentally because the comparisons with respect to 2021 were until now under the most notable effect of the crisis and progressively in 2021 has seen a great recovery in the labor market, therefore in the coming months months of 2022 will be compared with 2021 data, where they dragged a strong recovery, which will moderate growth. To this must be added an inflation in the Valencian Community that shot up to 7,8% in February, the highest value in the last 20 years, due to the increase in electricity prices and the rise in diesel and fuel prices, and this is always bad news for the job market. To this must be added how the current war in Ukraine will affect externally with its negative implications for the economy depending on how it continues over time.
