The behavior of the labor market during January has been positive, as its figures have improved in that month compared to previous years. Despite the fact that seasonally it is the worst month of the year, since employment suffers after the
end of the Christmas campaign with a drop in enrollment compared to last month, the best performance in the last five years has been recorded.
The month of January is always characterized by bad news for the labor market, which materializes in decreases in affiliation and increases in unemployment, and in this month we have had an unusual behavior in terms of the sign and intensity of the variables, since there is the largest drop in the number of jobseekers in a month of January in the historical series and one of the slightest drops in affiliated people.
El number of affiliates to the Social Security in January, it decreased by 342 people, reaching 54.923 affiliates, which translates into a decrease of 0,62%. This negative sign corresponds to a normal month of January, highlighting that this decrease has been better than that of the previous 5 years, therefore, in terms of affiliation we are facing a global behavior that is not different from what could be expected from any other month of January.
This month, however, reflects an increase in enrollment in year-on-year terms of 7,33%, +3.753 people, therefore, there has been significant growth in employment.
With this annual growth of more than 7%, what we see is that we have had an acceleration in year-on-year employment growth for several months in a row, which is very good news, but this trend
possibly reverse and a reduction in the increase in the number of affiliates will be observed compared to the previous year, since we are still comparing the number of affiliates of January 2022 with respect to January '21, compared to a moment when the crisis was still affecting very deeply to the economy and therefore to the labor market.
Throughout 2021, a progressive recovery has been seen in many of the employment sectors, therefore, when year-on-year comparisons are made, as 2022 deepens, a moderation in the positive number of affiliates can be expected, which will continue to be positive if nothing extraordinary happens in our labor market.
By activity regimens, a general decrease in employment stands out, with the exception of the Self-Employed, which practically maintains the same number of affiliations as in December (a total of 17.427 affiliates, +7). In percentage terms, the Special Regime for the Sea is the one that has experienced the greatest reduction, with -4,72%, followed by the Special Agrarian Regime and the General Regime, with -1,61%, -0,79%, respectively. .
In year-on-year terms (compared with January 2021), the Special Agrarian Regime is the one that has had the greatest drop, with -11,17% fewer affiliates than a year ago (366 compared to 412).
As for the number of jobseekers, a paradoxical fact occurs, unemployment in a month of January is characterized by very significant increases in unemployment, this has been the case in the last 10 years, and without a doubt
We are facing the first decline of the entire historical series. This decrease of 390 people compared to December is very positive, because seasonally it is a month in which we should expect significant increases in unemployment, just the opposite of what we have had. This decrease of 3,46% compared to December, leaves us with a number of job seekers of 10.867, for the first time below that obtained in February '20, a month before the state of alarm was declared (10.988 unemployed people ). And with a very notable decrease in the last year of 24,74% (-3.572 unemployed compared to January 2021).
The composition of job seekers by sex is represented as has been the case in recent months, where the weight of unemployed men is 41,82% (4.545), compared to 58,18% of women (6.322). The decline of
jobseekers in the last month has been 4,78% for men (-228 men), while for women it has fallen by 2,50% (-162 women).
Likewise, if we compare with January 2021, this year-on-year decrease has been more pronounced in the case of men (-28,88% in men compared to -21,45% in women).
If we analyze unemployment by productive sectors, the Construction sector decreased its number of job seekers by 8,45% (1.160 job seekers, -107 people). In relative terms it is followed by Industry and Services with a decrease of 3,13% and 2,12% respectively (496 and 8.546 unemployed people).
If we compare the figures for this month of January with January 2020, the year-on-year variations are more favourable, since these 3.572 fewer job seekers translate into the largest drop in unemployed in one year in the series
historical (-24,74%). Thus, the activity sectors with the greatest percentage drop in unemployed people in the last year were Construction (-26,11% and 410 fewer people) and Services (-24,02% and 2.702 fewer people).
If we detail the analysis by section of economic activity and focus on those activities with greater weight in the region, we observe that Hospitality has decreased by 71 fewer people (-2,50%), Commerce and Construction have reduced their numbers of unemployed people in 14 people (-0,77%) and 107 people (-8,45%). These falls become more dynamic if we compare it with the month of December of last year, Hospitality decreased its job seekers by 8,96%, Commerce -6,17% and Construction -3,81%.
By calculating the unemployment rate, in the Marina Alta, it is observed that this practically remains the same, it decreases by less than half a point with respect to December, reaching an estimated unemployment rate of 16,52%. As a global analysis of the crisis, we can highlight if we compare ourselves with February 2020, the last month before the start of the crisis, that we have an increase in membership of 1.212 members, we have more employment than we had in 2020, with the nuance of the people still covered by ERTE. Regarding unemployment, if we compare ourselves with February '20 there are 121 fewer unemployed.
In terms of engagement, we find that in the month of January it has grown by 6,65% compared to December. 3.049 contracts have been signed, of which 71,04% are temporary and 28,96% indefinite, a figure that increases compared to the previous month in the case of indefinite contracts (+427) and falls in terms of temporary contracts (-237) This figure is high for a month of January, it exceeds that of last year by 46,52% (+968).
The record of indefinite contracts in a month of January stands out, the signing of 883 indefinite contracts in this month represents the highest figure reached in a month of January of the historical series. It is still early to know the impact of the labor reform and the application of the new temporary limitation models, but perhaps with the message of fighting against temporary employment that the new reform includes, it has served to have the first effects on the market labor. This indefinite hiring increases by 124,68% compared to last year and in the case of temporary contracts it increases by 28,32% compared to January 2021.
Differences can be seen in the variation of hiring by gender with respect to the previous month, thus the hiring of women has increased by 3,22% compared to December '21 and by 9,93% for men. The number of contracts signed during the month of January has been in favor of men in 52,64% and 47,36% for women. As well as highlighting that with respect to January '21, the growth in hiring has been practically equally intense between men and women (+46,58% for men and +46,45 for women).
These statistics are like the black friday offers that are doubled two days before and they tell you that the price has dropped by 50% 🤣
To carry out a correct analysis of the data, you should specify whether you are able to clearly understand people who are still in Erte, since these count as affiliates and of the incorporations compared with respect to January 2020, which part corresponds to private employment (the that generates wealth) and that part corresponds to the public sector (the one that spends the wealth).
As for the analysis of sectors, perhaps a mention of the economic cycle and the creation of cyclical jobs would not ring the bells, since exposure to the economic cycle (if everything goes well, everyone is happy, if poverty goes bad) is overwhelming.
And to finish off an average of 15% unemployment (by eye) I don't think it's something to celebrate, since it's a figure from a third world country.